Destabilizing Hegemony: Fostering Uncertainty to Sustain Russian Status with Multipolarity

This article deals with Russian Foreign Policy, Russia-US relations, Strategy, International Security, and Unpredictability.

Since the commencement of Vladimir Putin's third presidential term, Russia has undergone a significant transformation in its foreign policy, becoming more globally active and regionally assertive. This study argues that central to this transformation is the strategic use of "unpredictability" to advance Russia's interests in an international environment where US hegemony is perceived to be declining. The strategy of unpredictability is primarily executed through cyberattacks and coercive military power, aimed at reshaping the international system to favor Russian interests. The research question examined by this paper is: What strategy underlies Russia's use of cyberattacks and coercive military power to challenge US hegemony? To answer the question, our study employs Kenneth Waltz's three levels of analysis in international relations: the individual, the state, and the system levels. At the individual level, we examine how Vladimir Putin's personal beliefs and strategic calculations shape Russian foreign policy. At the state level, we explore how Russia's internal political, economic, and social structures contribute to its foreign policy actions. At the systemic level, we analyze how Russia seeks to challenge the ideological foundations of the US-led international order and create a multipolar world. Russia’s cyber operations against Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine, alongside its military interventions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria, serve as examples of this strategy. This study evaluates the role of unpredictability in achieving Russia’s foreign policy objectives and its implications for the international system. Finally, the consequences of this strategy for global governance are discussed.